The crypto market appears to be on a recovery path as it heads into the evening, though the situation remains precarious. Following a significant downturn over the weekend, driven by escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China along with a wave of liquidations, the market saw a substantial loss of value. While a partial rebound has added approximately $550 billion back to the global crypto market cap, it still lingers around $280 billion under pre-crash figures. A notable shift in trader focus has emerged, with discussions now centering on institutional commentary, regulatory developments, and actions taken by exchanges.
### Bitcoin: 50% Loss against Gold?
Mike McGlone, a senior strategist at Bloomberg, has expressed a notably bleak outlook for Bitcoin’s future value. He suggests that the current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which stands at around 30 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, could plummet by up to 50%. Should this occur, it would signify a significant regression for Bitcoin, undermining the years of growth it experienced under the “digital gold” narrative. McGlone warns that ongoing market stress may compel investors to revert to gold as a safe haven, relegating Bitcoin to being viewed once more as a high-risk asset. This cautionary perspective arises as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its value above $110,000, having recently dipped near $100,600 during the crash. However, despite this turmoil, Bitcoin’s market dominance has surged to over 55%, indicating that traders are increasingly shifting their investments back to Bitcoin, viewing it as the benchmark of the crypto landscape. This suggests that while Bitcoin may outperform altcoins during challenging times, it still lacks the stability that gold provides, leaving the competition between the two assets unresolved.
### XRP ETF Decision Window Opens
The period from October 18 to October 24 is poised to be pivotal for XRP, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expected to announce rulings on six spot ETF applications associated with the cryptocurrency. These include applications from firms such as Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, CanaryCapital, CoinShares, and WisdomTree. If the SEC approves even one of these applications, it would mark a historic milestone for XRP, aligning it with Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have recently secured ETF approvals. A successful ETF launch could attract a surge of institutional investment, potentially allowing XRP to mirror the price trajectories seen by Bitcoin and Ethereum post-ETF approval. Analysts predict that XRP could reach significant resistance levels above $3 if this scenario unfolds. However, uncertainty looms as the SEC’s current operations are hampered by a staffing shortage due to a government funding impasse, which may lead to procedural delays. Moreover, there exists a possibility that the SEC could reject the applications if it finds issues with liquidity or investor protection standards.
### Binance Pays $283 Million in Compensation
In another major development, Binance, the leading global crypto exchange, has unveiled a compensation initiative amounting to $283 million aimed at clients adversely affected by the abrupt market downturn that occurred between October 10 and 11. The losses were attributed to three specific instruments: Ethena’s USDe stablecoin, which plummeted from $1 to $0.65, Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL), a derivative linked to Solana’s staking program, and Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH), which relates to locked Ethereum deposits. As discussions arise about the strength of BNB, many have observed how key players within the Binance ecosystem, including Binance and Venus, opted to absorb significant financial losses to safeguard their users. This approach contrasts sharply with responses from other entities within the industry that sought to deflect blame or criticize competitors. When the values of these assets fell below their expected levels, Binance’s internal price oracles responded by marking them down sharply, triggering forced liquidations across both long and short positions. To restore trust, Binance has characterized this compensation as a corrective response to “extraordinary macroeconomic volatility” that incited panic-selling across both institutional and retail segments.
### Evening Outlook
The evening developments underscore a broader narrative rather than focusing on a single issue; they highlight the interconnectedness of the crypto market with prevailing economic pressures, government oversight, and centralized platforms, despite the sector’s foundational principles of decentralization. As traders prepare for the opening of the U.S. stock market, attention is turning to the critical support levels for Bitcoin, specifically whether it can maintain its footing between $109,000 and $111,000. A drop below this range could trigger a wave of liquidations. On the upside, traders are eyeing resistance targets situated between $113,000 and $114,000. Additionally, Ethereum’s critical zone around $4,300 remains significant, though there are currently few indications of fresh momentum beyond that price level.
